Spot price
Daily mean of the national spot price in COP per kWh, with a 14-day forecast. Prices rise when reservoirs fall; the band shows how much uncertainty each day carries.
Market data through Oct 25, 2026
Price and forecast
- Observed
- Forecast (median)
- 80 % range (P10 to P90)
Next 14 days: the median runs from 364 to 504 COP/kWh (mean 437). The 80 % range spans 239 to 700 COP/kWh.
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| Date | P10 (COP/kWh) | P50 (COP/kWh) | P90 (COP/kWh) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, October 26, 2026 | 344 | 415 | 483 |
| Tuesday, October 27, 2026 | 348 | 409 | 483 |
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | 341 | 441 | 546 |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | 328 | 456 | 575 |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | 327 | 476 | 581 |
| Saturday, October 31, 2026 | 300 | 411 | 551 |
| Sunday, November 1, 2026 | 263 | 364 | 521 |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | 241 | 396 | 590 |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | 281 | 459 | 646 |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | 281 | 478 | 674 |
| Thursday, November 5, 2026 | 288 | 494 | 693 |
| Friday, November 6, 2026 | 287 | 504 | 700 |
| Saturday, November 7, 2026 | 261 | 434 | 665 |
| Sunday, November 8, 2026 | 239 | 383 | 638 |
Price spike risk
Probability, for each forecast day, that the spot price exceeds a threshold
- Above 500 COP/kWh
- 30 % above the 30-day average
The highest probability of exceeding 500 COP/kWh is 51 %, on Friday, November 6, 2026. The highest probability of a price 30 % above the recent average (635 COP/kWh) is 8 %, on Friday, November 6, 2026.
Computed from the forecast's own P10, P50 and P90 bands, with no separate model. In the backtest it separated expensive days from normal ones well (AUC 0.96 for 500 COP/kWh and 0.85 for the 30 % rise) and had a lower Brier error than repeating what just happened. Only the levels where it proved reliable are shown. It is a statistical estimate.
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| Date | Above 500 | 30 % rise |
|---|---|---|
| Monday, October 26, 2026 | 8 % | 0 % |
| Tuesday, October 27, 2026 | 6 % | 0 % |
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | 25 % | 0 % |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | 34 % | 0 % |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | 41 % | 1 % |
| Saturday, October 31, 2026 | 20 % | 0 % |
| Sunday, November 1, 2026 | 12 % | 0 % |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | 25 % | 2 % |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | 40 % | 4 % |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | 45 % | 5 % |
| Thursday, November 5, 2026 | 49 % | 7 % |
| Friday, November 6, 2026 | 51 % | 8 % |
| Saturday, November 7, 2026 | 35 % | 4 % |
| Sunday, November 8, 2026 | 24 % | 2 % |
What drives the next-day forecast
Contribution of each factor to the next-day median, in COP/kWh
- Latest value vs. its weekly average+54COP/kWh
- Dispatch cost change over 3 days−53COP/kWh
- Programmed dispatch cost for that day−24COP/kWh
- Dispatch cost of the latest unsettled days−19COP/kWh
- El Niño index change over 3 months+14COP/kWh
- COP/kWh
Price through the day
Latest complete day against the average of the previous week
- Latest day (Oct 25)
- Previous week average